Three market movements every fleet faces in 2026
Axis Intermodal Deutschland GmbH analyses the movement data of around 16,500 swap bodies in its European rental fleet. From the first edition of its market briefing Axis Insights, three observations stand out as immediately relevant for any fleet operator in combined transport.
Source: Axis Intermodal Deutschland GmbH, market briefing „Axis Insights" issue #1 — used with permission of Solvium Holding AG (parent company).
Parcel/express grows — but no longer linearly
Germany's parcel/express sector again handled more than four billion shipments in 2024. More striking than the absolute volume is the seasonal spread: peak and baseload drift further apart.
- KEP shipments 2024
- > 4bn▲
- Spread peak/base
- 20–35%▲
- Overcapacity (own fleet)
- 8–9months▼
Whoever covers peaks fully with own equipment, according to Axis Intermodal Deutschland GmbH, runs the majority of the year in overcapacity — typically eight to nine months. The economically relevant question therefore shifts from absolute fleet size to the ratio between baseload and flexible rental.
Quelle: BIEK study 2024 (shipment volume); Axis Insights #1 (spread and utilisation observation)
Combined transport tips faster than planned
The German lorry toll was extended in December 2023 with a CO₂ component. For Euro-6 vehicles this gives significantly higher rates depending on axle count, and BMDV KV-funding continues in parallel.
- Toll increase (Euro 6)
- up to +83%▲
- Economical from
- > 300km▲
- Precondition
- crane-ableKV-approved—
On relations beyond 300 km the economic threshold currently shifts in favour of rail — provided crane-handleable, KV-approved swap bodies are in the fleet. Whoever lacks this body type cannot capture the resulting margin lever.
Quelle: German Federal Trunk Road Toll Act 2023; Axis Insights #1
Telematics becomes a floor — not a premium
Solar-powered GPS modules are now standard in the rental fleets of major lessors. Three drivers: insurers requiring localisation evidence, shippers demanding container-level track & trace, dispatchers capturing measurable efficiency gains.
- GPS share (rental fleet)
- > 50%▲
- Empty-time reduction
- 5–12%▼
- Power source
- solar—
In the rental fleet of Axis Intermodal Deutschland GmbH more than half of all units carry solar-powered GPS modules. According to the operator's observation, this reduces empty time by five to twelve percent — a lever that should be standard-priced into any 2026 acquisition.
Quelle: Axis Insights #1 (GPS share, effect on empty time)
„Anyone investing in own fleet in 2026 should treat GPS not as an option, but as a mandatory specification component."
What we are tracking in upcoming briefings
- Issue #2: Total cost of ownership of a swap body over eight years — acquisition, UVV, repair, residual value.
- Issue #3: Five recurring mistakes in swap-body fleet management.
- Issue #4: UVV, repair, residual value — the often-underestimated risk in own fleets.
Topic suggestions for the briefing? Direct contact to the editorial team: kontakt@intermodal-europe.de — editorial responsibility for the curated content: Verlag Dorfstrasse, Stefan Muhlack.